How many of your orders lose money?
Google bids on revenue, so it buys more of whatever looks big. Six numbers you already know are enough to model what your order profit actually looks like underneath that. Nothing is sent anywhere, and there is nothing to sign up for.
Refine the costsShipping, fees, handling, VAT — defaults are already in
A month of your orders, one dot each
Each dot is one order from a modelled month, drawn from a catalogue built to average 42% margin, ranging from 12% to 65%, at an average order value of 90 €. Those four figures are yours. The spread between them is the model's assumption.
Shaded by margin. Hover for the order. These orders are modelled, so there is nothing to open.
49 of these 500 lost money — the same share as all 2 667.
Roughly 10% of these orders lose money before advertising is counted — GM2 below zero. Once you count what it cost to buy them, roughly 32% finish behind, and 11% of your ad spend, 4 387 € a month, sits on orders whose GP3 is negative. Your bidding cannot tell them from the rest.
Lost money before ads
10 %
GM2 below zero
Lost money after ads
32 %
GP3 below zero
Ad spend those orders took
4 387 €
11 % of the month's budget
GP3 for the month
25 003 €
What is left after the advertising
Where the money went
Every figure below is a share of net revenue for the modelled month, before advertising. This is the ladder Profitscaler measures per line item on real orders.
The spread, counted
The same dots as bands. One target ROAS has to serve every row of this table at once.
| Margin band | Orders | Share | GM2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lost money | 264 | 10 % | −541 € |
| 0–10 % | 112 | 4 % | 175 € |
| 10–20 % | 495 | 19 % | 2 885 € |
| 20–30 % | 648 | 24 % | 10 672 € |
| 30–40 % | 1 017 | 38 % | 42 816 € |
| 40 %+ | 131 | 5 % | 8 997 € |
The middle order here needed 4.2× to break even; a quarter of them needed 6.1× or more. Every one of them met your 6.0× target, because the target is the same number for all of them.
- Every number on this page is worked back from the three margin figures you typed. A stated margin is a figure you declare rather than a cost price read from your product feed, so everything downstream of one is an assumption.
- The orders behind the picture are a catalogue the model built to fit your average, your best and your worst margin. A real catalogue is lumpier than three numbers can describe.
- Nothing here has seen a single one of your orders. Profitscaler measures GM2 per line item from your own cost data; this page only draws the shape that measurement has to look at.
- Ad cost is spread across orders in proportion to what each one sold, at the ROAS you entered, measured against the order total including VAT. If your ads account reports revenue excluding VAT, your real ROAS is higher than the figure here treats it as.
- The marking is permanent. It does not clear as you sharpen the inputs, because a sharper assumption is still an assumption.
Want these figures to keep?
The distribution, the ledger and the bands, with the numbers you entered stated beside them, so the assumptions travel with the figures.
What this cannot tell you
- Which products?
- The model spreads your margins across a catalogue it invented. It cannot know that one line runs at 8% and carries a third of your volume.
- Which campaigns?
- Ad spend here is one monthly figure at one ROAS. Your account is a dozen campaigns and they do not share a margin.
- Which carriers?
- Shipping is one cost per order here. The real one depends on what the customer picked at checkout and how heavy the box was.
- Which customers?
- Returns, discount codes and second orders from the same person all land in different places. None of them is in this model.
Four questions, and every one of them is a which. A model answers how many. Only your own orders answer which ones.