How many of your orders lose money?
Google bids on revenue, so it buys more of whatever looks big. Six numbers show what your order profit looks like underneath that. Nothing is sent until you ask for the report, and there is nothing to sign up for.
Refine the costsShipping, fees, handling, VAT: defaults are already in
A month of your orders, one dot each
Each dot is one order from a modelled month: a catalogue built to average 42% margin, from 12% to 65%, at an average order value of 90 €. Those four figures are yours; the spread between them is the model's assumption.
Shaded by margin. Hover for the order. These orders are modelled, so there is nothing to open.
49 of these 500 lost money, the same share as all 2 667.
Roughly 10% of these orders lose money before advertising: GM2 below zero. Once you count what it cost to buy them, roughly 32% finish behind, and 11% of your ad spend, 4 387 € a month, sits on orders with negative GP3. Your bidding cannot tell them from the rest.
Lost money before ads
10 %
GM2 below zero
Lost money after ads
32 %
GP3 below zero
Ad spend those orders took
4 387 €
11 % of the month's budget
GP3 for the month
25 003 €
What is left after the advertising
Where the money went
Every figure below is a share of net revenue for the modelled month, before advertising: the same ladder Profitscaler measures per line item on real orders.
The spread, counted
The same dots as bands. One target ROAS has to serve every row of this table at once.
| Margin band | Orders | Share | GM2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lost money | 264 | 10 % | −541 € |
| 0–10 % | 112 | 4 % | 175 € |
| 10–20 % | 495 | 19 % | 2 885 € |
| 20–30 % | 648 | 24 % | 10 672 € |
| 30–40 % | 1 017 | 38 % | 42 816 € |
| 40 %+ | 131 | 5 % | 8 997 € |
The middle order here needed 4.2× to break even; a quarter of them needed 6.1× or more. All of them met your 6.0× target: it is the same target for every one of them.
Why
- Every figure here is worked back from the three margins you typed. A stated margin is a figure you declare, not a cost price from your product feed, so everything downstream of it is an assumption.
- The orders shown are a catalogue built to fit your average, best and worst margin. A real catalogue is lumpier than three numbers can describe.
- Nothing here has seen one of your actual orders. Profitscaler measures GM2 per line item from your own cost data; this page only sketches the shape that measurement will look at.
- Ad cost is spread across orders by revenue share, at the ROAS you entered, against the order total including VAT. If your ads account reports revenue excluding VAT, your real ROAS is higher than this page assumes.
- The marking is permanent. It does not clear as you sharpen the inputs: a sharper assumption is still an assumption.
Want these figures to keep?
The distribution, the ledger and the bands, with the numbers you entered, so the assumptions travel with the figures.
What this cannot tell you
- Which products?
- The model spreads your margins across an invented catalogue. It cannot know one line runs at 8% and carries a third of your volume.
- Which campaigns?
- Ad spend here is one monthly figure at one ROAS. Your account is a dozen campaigns, and they do not share a margin.
- Which carriers?
- Shipping here is one cost per order. The real cost depends on what the customer chose at checkout and the box's weight.
- Which customers?
- Returns, discount codes and repeat orders from the same person land in different places. None of it is in this model.
Four questions, and each one is a which. A model answers how many. Only your own orders answer which ones.